Posted 16 Dec 2010 21:38
Recently, the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) announced the development of the 2010-2014 agricultural fertilizer trends and forecast changes in demand and supply. IFA Agriculture Committee Chairman Mr. PatrickHeffer IFA Production and International Trade Committee Chairman, Mr. MichelPrud'homme analysis of the global agricultural situation and development of fertilizer industry that fertilizer demand has begun to rebound, and will continue to increase, while fertilizer production capacity expanded faster, so 2010 -2012 global fertilizer supply and demand balance, but 2012-2014 will be apparent in overcapacity. Increased nitrogen excess capacity in early 2008, the global fertilizer market as a whole for the better, so many manufacturers planning to put new projects, resulting in a substantial increase in future capacity. After the market downturn in 2009, a number of new projects or stranded, or canceled, many investors in the establishment of new projects when they are more cautious. But even in the case of some control ,2009-2014, the global urea about 55 devices, 65 of synthetic ammonia project launched. According to IFA predicts that the global ammonia production capacity in the period 2009-2014 the average annual rate of 4% growth in total production capacity in 2014 could reach 224.1 million tons, representing an increase of 27.4 million tons in 2008 levels. Ammonia is mainly used for the downstream production of urea, **** and processing of industrial phosphate products. The main growth of nitrogen from the urea production capacity increase. Estimated 2009 global volume of 148.6 million tons of urea supply is expected to reach 155.6 million tons in 2010, to reach 193.4 million tons in 2014. From 2009 to 2014, annual growth rate of urea production capacity of 6%. The demand side, IFA that the urea market in 2010 will quickly pick up the estimated 2009 global demand was 146.4 million tons of urea in 2010 to 151.2 million tons in 2014 increased to 174.6 million tons, an annual growth rate of 3.8% . Among them, the demand for agricultural use accounts for the main growth in urea capacity from 2009 levels may be increased by 17% to 152.6 million tons in 2014. It can be observed during the period 2010 to-2014 the overall supply of urea in excess, surplus of 5 million tons in 2010, 2013, 9 million tons surplus in 2014 will reach 19 million tons of excess capacity. World phosphate fertilizer supply and demand in relative balance of mineral phosphorus can be expected from the level of 190 million tons in 2009 increased by 20% to 228 million tons in 2014, productivity growth not only from existing investors to expand engineering and exploitation of new mines, including new entrants into the phosphate investors in mining operations. 17 million tons of new investors will bring the supply of phosphate rock, half for export. Expected future supply of phosphate rock mainly in Africa, West Asia and East Asia increased production capacity in North America may decline. ,2009-2014 phosphorylation regard, the global phosphate production capacity expected to increase from 9.2 to 55.5 million tons P2O5, but the growth of 90% of the amount of phosphate is mainly used for domestic market consumption. 2010 is expected to supply phosphate over 200 million tons P2O5, 5% of total demand. 2012 and 2014 to over 2.7 million tons, respectively, and 340 tons of supply and demand are relatively balanced. Phosphate, the diammonium significant increase in production capacity, but demand growth will digest a lot of new capacity. In the past 5 years, 40 one ammonium, diammonium and TSP plant built in ten countries, half of them built in China. World phosphate fertilizer production capacity is expected to reach 42.3 million tons in 2014 compared to 2009 production capacity 8.2 million tons, an increase of the total production of diammonium increase the amount of 3 / 4. 2014 diammonium market supply and demand balance, because in 2010-2014, period, all the new supply will be absorbed by the growing demand. Potash demand is growing rapidly in 2010, nearly 100 K ore mining project in 25 countries; the past 3 years, only Canada to get the 180 mining licenses. The global potash fertilizer 2009-2014 major new development projects in Canada and Russia, there are other Argentina, Chile, China, Congo, Israel, Jordan and Laos. While new projects in full swing, but most require long-term preparation, some projects are temporarily stranded. Thus, in 2010 and 2011, more moderate rate of potash production capacity is expected to increase 200 million tons were K2O, but the 2012-2013 increase of 6.4 million tons, increased 2.5 million tons in 2014. Global potash demand in 2009 is estimated at 24.8 million tons K2O, 2010 year 29.9 million tons in 2014 to reach 35.8 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 9%. Therefore, faster growth in potash demand, will soon absorb the growing supply.