Several key retail forecasts and studies came out just as I was turning my attention to this month's column. It's not great news, but it's not totally bad, either -- if we invoke the reasoning of one of my favorite characters from childhood: Ned from the book Fortunately by Remy Charlip.

Ned is a guy who finds himself alternating between potential triumph and tragedy with every turn of the page: "Unfortunately, there was a hole in (Ned's) parachute-- Fortunately, there was a haystack below-- Unfortunately, there was a pitchfork in the haystack-- Fortunately, he missed the pitchfork-- Unfortunately, he missed the haystack--" You get the picture.

Many times, when considering the pros and cons of something or when trying to help one to find a bright spot in a gloomy situation, Ned will come to mind and take over my thought process until I've sorted it all out.

Like now, when thinking about those retail indicators I mentioned earlier that, unfortunately, suggest we're about to experience one of the weakest holiday retail seasons in at least a decade.

Fortunately, however, those same sources still suggest at least some growth in sales across all retail sectors -- somewhere between 1.5% and 2.2% over last year's holiday season.

Unfortunately, one of the exceptions is the home goods category where TNS Retail Forward is predicting a sales decline of at least 1% or more, primarily due to the ailing housing market.

Fortunately, TNS forecasts online sales across all categories to grow 9%, reaching $42.5 billion.

Unfortunately, it's about half of the 2007 holiday season growth number of 19%, and of course it does you no good if your Web site isn't set up for e-commerce.

Fortunately, WSL Strategic Retail thinks the number of online shoppers is destined to dramatically increase thanks to rising gasoline prices. And WSL reports that more women, middle-aged and high-income shoppers are turning to online shopping to save time. So maybe now's the time to get that e-register up and ringing.

Unfortunately, it may take a while for the investment to pay off since the pressures of the housing market, unemployment, tighter credit and the high cost of food and fuel are causing some measurable shifts in shopping patterns. More consumers are choosing to save money with store brands, warehouse clubs, "used" and less-frills items, shopping closer to home to save gas, and driving to retailers where they can do more one-stop shopping -- bad news if it means they're driving past your store to get to someone else's.

Fortunately, some retailers are adapting by shifting their selling formats, and maintains several cozy seating nooks to encourage lingering. Larger retail outfits are relying on temporary pop-ups, or smaller-scale versions of their traditional store operations, taking their product line in a whole new direction. And what about the luxury market that, so far, has been immune to all the negative financial news? Nope. We're all in it together.

Fortunately, there's a bright spot and it's just around the corner -- Americans are looking forward to a big Halloween celebration this year. The National Retail Federation's Halloween Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey conducted by BIGresearch, shows more consumers planning to celebrate (64.5% vs. 58.7% last year) to the tune of $5.77 billion, with the average person spending $66.54 on the holiday, a whopping $18.25 of that amount for decorations.

Oh, and as for our friend, Ned, I won't give away the ending but fortunately, it's a happy one.

Source :Home Accent Today, (Mag) October 2008