Dollar & Euro ..The community of interest and the coming conflict
Post 1 of 12
&
.. The community of interests and the coming conflict
since the 20th of the last century .. the US$ was the world currency for more than 80 years supported it a the global largest economic
US$ used all over the world as a global currency in all fields ... but
from 1999 or 2000, the dollar's dominance has begun to be undermined by the Euro that represents a larger size economy, with the prospect of more countries adopting the euro as their national currency. The euro inherited the status of a major reserve currency from the German deutsche mark , and since then its contribution to official reserves has risen continually as banks seek to diversify their reserves and trade in the euro zone continues to expand
In December 2006, the euro surpassed the dollar in the combined value of cash in circulation. The value of euro notes in circulation has risen to more than ¬610billions at the exchange rates at the time. Resulting in the euro being the currency with the highest combined value of cash in circulation in the world.
what's your view ..
the dollar will lose the first rank in the global markets
or .. the dollar will lose its position as a currency of the world
or no changes
some of the petroleum countries thinked to use the Eure as trade currency
Mohamad Alkady
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11 Dec 2007 11:45
Post 2 of 12
Replying to [mohamadalkady]:
I think Euro will take over the Dollar position in the near future. Euro is the combination of many developed and rich country which make it very stable. The political policy in the European Union is also not that easy to be changed which make it very much reliable compare to the Dollar. Who knows who will be the next President of the US or if the next guy is a nut case or not?
After the WW2 the US was deemed as a hero and the Sheriff of the world, however after the Vietnam war and Gulf War, the US is deemed as a bad guy by many nation, many believed that the US provoke war in order to stimulated their economy. Failure of finding weapon of mass destruction in Iraq has made the US lose it popularity. Tony Blair of the UK has stepped down and John Howard of Australia has lost his power due to this issue. I am confident the next person who is going to take over Bush dare not to rage war to stimulated the economy again. Without promoting war it is hard for the US to stimulated the economy again as they have been doing this for the last 30-40 years ?
This is my personal opinion and I just express my opinion with no intention of marginalize the US
I think Euro will take over the Dollar position in the near future. Euro is the combination of many developed and rich country which make it very stable. The political policy in the European Union is also not that easy to be changed which make it very much reliable compare to the Dollar. Who knows who will be the next President of the US or if the next guy is a nut case or not?
After the WW2 the US was deemed as a hero and the Sheriff of the world, however after the Vietnam war and Gulf War, the US is deemed as a bad guy by many nation, many believed that the US provoke war in order to stimulated their economy. Failure of finding weapon of mass destruction in Iraq has made the US lose it popularity. Tony Blair of the UK has stepped down and John Howard of Australia has lost his power due to this issue. I am confident the next person who is going to take over Bush dare not to rage war to stimulated the economy again. Without promoting war it is hard for the US to stimulated the economy again as they have been doing this for the last 30-40 years ?
This is my personal opinion and I just express my opinion with no intention of marginalize the US
11 Dec 2007 18:56
Post 3 of 12
Replying to [mohamadalkady]:
USD will lose its first position next years,but if only the US is one of the largest economic countries,the USD will take a important position.
I think next years,EUR as the USD'rival will attack USD's position,and other currency including RMB,RUPEE,RUBLE,etc,also will shake USD's position.
In the end,there are many strong currency will work together.
USD will lose its first position next years,but if only the US is one of the largest economic countries,the USD will take a important position.
I think next years,EUR as the USD'rival will attack USD's position,and other currency including RMB,RUPEE,RUBLE,etc,also will shake USD's position.
In the end,there are many strong currency will work together.
11 Dec 2007 23:08
Post 4 of 12
Replying to [mohamadalkady]:Dear Mo, Where were you.
After a long time a gr8 topic has been seen.
Well, I do not think that Euro will be able to replace the Doller, No doubt Euro has grown a significance space in a shorter span, then too, I feel the most import and reason for the devaluation of Dollar was the Fed cut rates in order to manage the US Economic recession. However, I feel this is the temporary face. I must not forget to state here that other countries will also take measure to strengthen their currency as well, but then too. The Dollar has its own strength and in a span of one or two years it will again reached at its original place. In international market both the currency will run simultaneously i.e. Euro and Dollar.
After a long time a gr8 topic has been seen.
Well, I do not think that Euro will be able to replace the Doller, No doubt Euro has grown a significance space in a shorter span, then too, I feel the most import and reason for the devaluation of Dollar was the Fed cut rates in order to manage the US Economic recession. However, I feel this is the temporary face. I must not forget to state here that other countries will also take measure to strengthen their currency as well, but then too. The Dollar has its own strength and in a span of one or two years it will again reached at its original place. In international market both the currency will run simultaneously i.e. Euro and Dollar.
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12 Dec 2007 02:57
Post 5 of 12
Replying to [mohamadalkady]:
Hello there,
It indeed is a very interesting topic. I will get right to the point then.
US like already hinted out has been ruling the world market after the world war, but why, they never really participated till the very end?
The answer is easy, US was the background player, supplying weaponry, and in return when the countries became indebted to US, this way US has been doing business over the last 50 years, first it causes the conflicts, supplies the guns and then indebts the country. This way of business was running quiet well, until some bad decisions were made, and the countries slowly recoverd and understood what was really going on.
It was in the US interest to keep countries at bay and never let them join, if you look at almost any issue that was going on US always had a say. Even the Afghan War for freedom against Russian Invasion, it was the USA who trained and supplied Afghanistan, and left them in the middle, and its the same Jihad US trained that is turned against them.
Anyhow, it has become obvious how US uses war to benefit its economy, and now there more countries opposing them, basically business is running bad.
Through this tactics, it was obvious that the Dollar was going to spread around the world, it had, and for a long time there was no other currency that was as stable as the Dollar was. Until the Euro showed up.
The Euro consists of all those countries that have been already suffering from the US way of business after the WW2. Its a unity of different countries, who are contrubuting in more then one way to support their economy, so if one countries improves, it at the same time improves the rest as well. A big advantage.
Further another major thing that should not be forgotten is that the strength of the Dollar depends on its share, its not dependend on Gold reserves, its pretty much the only currency who is not attached to the gold reserves, in a way a weak point.
Whereas the Euro is attached to the gold reserves, now there are so many countries who have fused together their gold values, no wonder the Euro will remain more stable then the Dollar.
The Euro also has another advantage, it is connected to the continents, so all neighbouring countires and continents are mostlikely to use it if they want to deal with Europe. So the spread is guranteed.
Further more the dollar has disappointed a lots of its partners, by constantly falling over the last 2-3 years. Unlike 50years ago, people now have a choice to choose between Dollar or Euro.
Already the Emirates have treatend to switch to the Euro, if that is to happen, the dollar lost all that there is.
I believe the Dollar is going to fall even more, since USA doesn´t really have any production on itself, and there is heavily dependend on imports then on Exports. And majority of the manufacturing countries fall now on the Euro side, there for forcing buyers to switch to Euro.
Another difference is no matter what happens, Europe is a accumulated of many countries, therefore always having a diverse and higher chances of business then does USA, which is only one Country. So many business have more business partners as per countries in Europe then they will in the USA.
So long run Euro will win now, since more and more countries are joining the EU, with them all their trading partners eventually have to switch to Euro.
Peace
Hello there,
It indeed is a very interesting topic. I will get right to the point then.
US like already hinted out has been ruling the world market after the world war, but why, they never really participated till the very end?
The answer is easy, US was the background player, supplying weaponry, and in return when the countries became indebted to US, this way US has been doing business over the last 50 years, first it causes the conflicts, supplies the guns and then indebts the country. This way of business was running quiet well, until some bad decisions were made, and the countries slowly recoverd and understood what was really going on.
It was in the US interest to keep countries at bay and never let them join, if you look at almost any issue that was going on US always had a say. Even the Afghan War for freedom against Russian Invasion, it was the USA who trained and supplied Afghanistan, and left them in the middle, and its the same Jihad US trained that is turned against them.
Anyhow, it has become obvious how US uses war to benefit its economy, and now there more countries opposing them, basically business is running bad.
Through this tactics, it was obvious that the Dollar was going to spread around the world, it had, and for a long time there was no other currency that was as stable as the Dollar was. Until the Euro showed up.
The Euro consists of all those countries that have been already suffering from the US way of business after the WW2. Its a unity of different countries, who are contrubuting in more then one way to support their economy, so if one countries improves, it at the same time improves the rest as well. A big advantage.
Further another major thing that should not be forgotten is that the strength of the Dollar depends on its share, its not dependend on Gold reserves, its pretty much the only currency who is not attached to the gold reserves, in a way a weak point.
Whereas the Euro is attached to the gold reserves, now there are so many countries who have fused together their gold values, no wonder the Euro will remain more stable then the Dollar.
The Euro also has another advantage, it is connected to the continents, so all neighbouring countires and continents are mostlikely to use it if they want to deal with Europe. So the spread is guranteed.
Further more the dollar has disappointed a lots of its partners, by constantly falling over the last 2-3 years. Unlike 50years ago, people now have a choice to choose between Dollar or Euro.
Already the Emirates have treatend to switch to the Euro, if that is to happen, the dollar lost all that there is.
I believe the Dollar is going to fall even more, since USA doesn´t really have any production on itself, and there is heavily dependend on imports then on Exports. And majority of the manufacturing countries fall now on the Euro side, there for forcing buyers to switch to Euro.
Another difference is no matter what happens, Europe is a accumulated of many countries, therefore always having a diverse and higher chances of business then does USA, which is only one Country. So many business have more business partners as per countries in Europe then they will in the USA.
So long run Euro will win now, since more and more countries are joining the EU, with them all their trading partners eventually have to switch to Euro.
Peace
12 Dec 2007 08:23
Post 6 of 12
Replying to [Keat Ta Kia]:
You are right as I think
from CIA website you will find the next Military statiistics data
Usa expenitures in this field in 2006 about 277 bilion dollar ( 37 % of the all world )
but if we know that Usa exportation in this field about ( 40 % : 60 % of the world )
it means that Usa Alone has about 55 % : 70 of the world production
these results make me sure that the us econmic is depend on the war .. with the legal direct way and at the same time ... in the dark with the dirty ways
Mohamad Alkady
You are right as I think
from CIA website you will find the next Military statiistics data
Usa expenitures in this field in 2006 about 277 bilion dollar ( 37 % of the all world )
but if we know that Usa exportation in this field about ( 40 % : 60 % of the world )
it means that Usa Alone has about 55 % : 70 of the world production
these results make me sure that the us econmic is depend on the war .. with the legal direct way and at the same time ... in the dark with the dirty ways
Mohamad Alkady
13 Dec 2007 15:30
Post 7 of 12
Replying to [archersun]:
Hi archersun ... partly I am with you
of course the US$ ( the next years ) will lose its position as world currency
and I am sure that EURO will gain a new important position in the international trade and economics
but about the chinese , indian , .. currincies .. I think wil need more time to become at the same level of dollar and euro 20 or 30 years
Mohamad Alkady
Hi archersun ... partly I am with you
of course the US$ ( the next years ) will lose its position as world currency
and I am sure that EURO will gain a new important position in the international trade and economics
but about the chinese , indian , .. currincies .. I think wil need more time to become at the same level of dollar and euro 20 or 30 years
Mohamad Alkady
13 Dec 2007 16:49
Post 8 of 12
Replying to [mohamadalkady]:
I agree. I think that the Euro will become a more stable currency for international trade, but at the same time I also see the Australian Dollar as a fairly stable currency which could alternately serve the region very well.
What do you think?![[em20]](http://img.alibaba.com/images/eng/style/icon/emoticons_victory.gif)
I agree. I think that the Euro will become a more stable currency for international trade, but at the same time I also see the Australian Dollar as a fairly stable currency which could alternately serve the region very well.
What do you think?
14 Dec 2007 07:19
Post 9 of 12
In response to Firo:
If memory serves me correctly wasn't it the Austrian-Hungarian crew who started World War One by invading what became Yugoslavia.
Franz Joseph was a saint???????? He crushed anything like a nationalist move by any of the numerous groups that the Austro-Hungarian empire ruled with severe military means. (esp Hungary)
After WWI it was france and Italy that denied the newly formed Austria (esp the Tyrol and Salzburg) the right to merge back with Germany....
Austria chose to join with Nazi Germany in the late 30's, she was not pushed into it..... can you tell me what happened to the 200,000 odd Jews from Vienna perhaps Firo?
The US didn;t start either WWI or WWII.... But she stepped in to help those she thought of as "friends"....... Has the US made mistakes in foreign policy in the last 100 years? * YES!
But are you telling me Austria has been totally "clean" during those same 100 years????
Ranting your anti-American cause under the guise of a discussion on currency movements is pretty bushleague buddy..... I guess there were no Austrian Nazis either!
If memory serves me correctly wasn't it the Austrian-Hungarian crew who started World War One by invading what became Yugoslavia.
Franz Joseph was a saint???????? He crushed anything like a nationalist move by any of the numerous groups that the Austro-Hungarian empire ruled with severe military means. (esp Hungary)
After WWI it was france and Italy that denied the newly formed Austria (esp the Tyrol and Salzburg) the right to merge back with Germany....
Austria chose to join with Nazi Germany in the late 30's, she was not pushed into it..... can you tell me what happened to the 200,000 odd Jews from Vienna perhaps Firo?
The US didn;t start either WWI or WWII.... But she stepped in to help those she thought of as "friends"....... Has the US made mistakes in foreign policy in the last 100 years? * YES!
But are you telling me Austria has been totally "clean" during those same 100 years????
Ranting your anti-American cause under the guise of a discussion on currency movements is pretty bushleague buddy..... I guess there were no Austrian Nazis either!
19 Dec 2007 16:35
Post 10 of 12
You lost me on this one Mo....... That is money flowing OUT of the US not into it....... How does that make the US stronger in any way? Or am i misreading your post ?
Agree with you that the Yuan and Rupee are not anywhere near strong enough as yet.
The Euro is, at this time, the most stable of the "common world" currencies....Remember that the USD has NEVER been the only currency available for trading. No-one ever forced people to use it....... but being the biggest, most stable economy for 50 years does kind of point to people holding it as a "better" currency than others.
Someone also mentioned the Gold Reserves..... Whoever it is has bought into the myth crated that gold is anything other than a metal useful for some purposes but is in no way a "reserve" to base anything on...... The Soviets proved that when they dumped billions of dollars worth of gold onto international markets back in the late 80's and thru the 90's..... Gold is a metal that comes out of the ground. that's all. No-one has seriouly considered gold THE benchmark for the last 10 years.
Agree with you that the Yuan and Rupee are not anywhere near strong enough as yet.
The Euro is, at this time, the most stable of the "common world" currencies....Remember that the USD has NEVER been the only currency available for trading. No-one ever forced people to use it....... but being the biggest, most stable economy for 50 years does kind of point to people holding it as a "better" currency than others.
Someone also mentioned the Gold Reserves..... Whoever it is has bought into the myth crated that gold is anything other than a metal useful for some purposes but is in no way a "reserve" to base anything on...... The Soviets proved that when they dumped billions of dollars worth of gold onto international markets back in the late 80's and thru the 90's..... Gold is a metal that comes out of the ground. that's all. No-one has seriouly considered gold THE benchmark for the last 10 years.
19 Dec 2007 16:38
Post 11 of 12
Replying to [mohamadalkady]:Dear Peter, I fully agree with your comments on the topic. Otherwise when I initiated similar topic I was a bit confused with your remarks and replies. That is actually the Peter Dent's reply I was looking for.
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19 Dec 2007 22:01